I Fell for the ‘Banana in the Tailpipe’ — Don’t Make This Same Mistake

by Roger Scott | Oct 13, 2026

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I’m going to share something with you that’s a little embarrassing, but important.

Last week, I made a real mistake. The kind that, even after 31 years of trading, I can still make when I’m not paying close enough attention.

I was watching the U.S. dollar, and it looked strong. Really strong. It appeared to be breaking out — the kind of move that catches your eye and makes you want to jump in.

So I did. I bought it.

By the end of the day, it had completely reversed. What looked like a breakout that morning turned into nothing more than a wick. The price came right back down, and I was left holding a trade that didn’t pan out.

This wasn’t a trade I recommended to anyone — it was a personal position. But it’s a perfect example of a mistake I see traders make repeatedly and one I want to help you avoid.

The Morning Mirage

When you’re looking at daily price action, what you see in the morning doesn’t always hold through the close. The dollar can rally early, appear to clear resistance and then pull back before the session ends.

That’s why discipline matters. If you’re trading from a daily chart, don’t make your decision from an unfinished candle. Wait until the end of the day, then review the position.

If the dollar is still above the key area at the close, that provides much stronger evidence that the move is real. Ideally, I also want to see the prior high broken and a supportive hammer pattern confirmed.

The same principle applies to the broader market. An index may open higher, make a higher low and a higher high, then drift for most of the session without delivering meaningful upside. A strong opening print doesn’t automatically signal sustained momentum.

The Algos Are Playing Games

There’s another layer to understand. Algorithms can move prices more easily outside regular market hours, when liquidity is thinner and fewer participants are active. Those moves can push price through a technical level, trigger orders and create the appearance of a breakout. Once the full market opens and liquidity returns, that move may quickly fade.

Sector leadership offers another useful reality check. Most speculative sectors are currently sitting in the middle or near the bottom of the performance rankings.

That tells us speculative areas aren’t leading — a reason to be cautious about chasing apparent strength and taking unnecessary risk.

I share this because I want you to learn from my mistake instead of making your own. It happens to everybody. I tell people all the time: “Don’t fall for the banana in the tailpipe,” but it can happen to me too. I’m not immune from anything.

The next time you see a morning breakout on a daily chart, wait for the close. Let price confirm the move, check whether sector leadership supports it and don’t fall for the banana in the tailpipe.

I hope that helps!

Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading

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