My USO Trading Strategy for Middle East Tensions

by Roger Scott | Oct 14, 2026

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When it comes to trading geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, I don’t overcomplicate things. I’ve developed a strategy that’s been working consistently, and I want to share exactly what I’ve been doing in my own account.

Right now, gold and crude oil are waiting for a catalyst. Commodities are in wait-and-see mode, which means the next major economic or geopolitical headline could quickly set prices in motion.

That sensitivity to global news is exactly why I stay ready rather than trying to predict when the move will begin.

The ticker you need to write down is the United States Oil Fund (USO). When I expect uncertainty in the Middle East, or USO sells off for a couple of days, I look for an opportunity to go long.

I focus on USO instead of individual oil stocks because it offers exposure to crude oil futures without the company-specific risks that come with energy stocks. It isn’t the same as owning physical oil, but it provides a direct way to trade changes in the oil market.

The Pattern That’s Been Working

I’ve been buying USO when news comes out about progress on a Middle East deal and oil sells off. You know the pattern — optimistic headlines hit, crude drops on the idea that tensions might ease and traders react quickly.

That’s when I step in.

These headline-driven dips have often been followed by rebounds because Middle East tensions rarely resolve overnight. With commodities waiting for a catalyst, global news can produce sharp swings in either direction.

The opportunity comes from watching how oil responds and acting only when the setup appears.

It’s become standard operating procedure in my account. I’m not trying to be clever or outsmart the market — I’m following a recurring pattern while recognizing that no setup works every time.

How to Approach This Strategy

I’m telling you what I do because I don’t believe in recommending something I wouldn’t trade myself. Another professional trader I know uses debit spreads on USO with a similar approach, so there are multiple ways to structure the trade depending on your risk tolerance and capital.

The key is patience. In a wait-and-see commodity market, you don’t need to force a position before the catalyst arrives. When a geopolitical headline hits and USO dips, I assess whether the reaction looks temporary and define my risk before entering.

This isn’t about making political predictions. It’s about identifying a recurring pattern and having the discipline to act when the setup appears — buying oil exposure on select dips during periods of Middle East uncertainty while managing the risk of further declines.

I hope that helps!

Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading

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