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I’ve been getting this question a lot lately…
“Roger, how come my favorite stock isn’t moving? Why aren’t our stocks doing anything?”
Here’s the straight answer — don’t talk to me, talk to the S&P 500 (SPY). If the SPY doesn’t move, your stocks probably aren’t going to move. It’s that simple.
Right now, the SPY is consolidating in a sideways channel with no directional bias. It still hasn’t reached the eight-day exponential moving average (EMA), a short-term technical level that can help confirm whether momentum is returning. We need the index to reach and hold that level before we can have greater confidence in a push toward new highs.
Momentum, Volume and Sector Leadership
The index must enter a trending phase or you’re going to get chop with very little follow-through. Volume is also critical. A breakout without stronger participation often lacks the power to continue, so volume needs to pick up or this market could remain stuck for a long time.
Market breadth reinforces that warning. Over the past two sessions, the number of stocks making one-month highs fell from 405 to 250. Fewer stocks reaching new highs means momentum is narrowing beneath the surface, even if the major indexes appear relatively stable.
Sector leadership matters too. Energy (XLE), Health Care (XLV), Materials (XLB) and Biotech (XBI) have shown activity, but chip stocks have been notably absent from the leadership group.
When influential growth areas such as Semiconductors (SMH) fail to participate, the broader market can struggle to build sustained upside momentum. Follow the sectors attracting capital instead of assuming every strong stock will move at once.
Bonds and interest-rate expectations add another layer. Economic news can become “good news is bad news” when stronger data pushes yields higher and reduces expectations for easier monetary policy.
Conversely, weaker data can support stocks if it pulls yields down. Watching the bond market helps explain why stocks may react differently than the headline suggests.
This Is Take Your Profits and Run Season
These conditions create limited trading ranges, weak intraday momentum and failed breakouts. You can have a clean setup — strong relative strength, a favorable volume profile and supportive sector rotation — but it can still stall when the SPY is stuck in neutral.
So this is your necessary adjustment…
This is Take Your Profits and Run season.
If you’ve got a winner, don’t wait for it to become a big winner — take the gain and move on. Until the SPY reclaims momentum, volume expands and market breadth improves, follow-through may remain unreliable.
Patience isn’t just a virtue in this market — it’s a survival skill.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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