Why This Week Marks the True Start of Seasonal Strength, Not September

by Roger Scott | Aug 17, 2026

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Here’s something that might surprise you — and it’s one of those market truths that can give you a real edge if you act on it.

Most traders believe strong seasonality doesn’t kick in until the first or second week of September. They sit on the sidelines through late August, waiting for that magic calendar flip.

But the market often starts moving in the third week of August, which starts today.

That’s when institutional money can begin returning. If you wait until September to position yourself, you may already be late to the party.

How Institutional Buying Can Hide in Plain Sight

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) and other major players are holding substantial cash reserves. If they begin putting that capital to work, their buying could help fuel momentum as we begin the third week of August.

But institutions don’t always place one massive, visible order. They can use an “iceberg order” to divide a large purchase into smaller pieces, revealing only part of their demand at a time. That can make accumulation harder to spot until price and volume begin confirming the move.

This is where recent advances in AI and real-time trading technology can help. These tools can process price, volume and order-flow data quickly, highlighting patterns that might otherwise be missed.

Speed and precision matter when a setup can develop in minutes rather than weeks, though no tool can guarantee a large, rapid gain.

I’ve watched this seasonal pattern play out year after year. September and October can be strong months for momentum traders, but the setup may begin earlier than most people realize. Combining seasonal awareness with real-time signals can help traders recognize a move before it becomes obvious to the broader market.

Prepare for Opportunity — and Risk

Build your watchlist, identify sectors showing relative strength and define your entry, stop and position size before momentum accelerates. Look for confirmation instead of buying solely because of the calendar.

Losses have occurred in trading and they will occur again — there’s no way to eliminate them completely. That’s why risk management matters as much as timing.

Never risk more than you can afford to lose, avoid chasing sudden moves and know where you’ll exit if the setup fails.

Traders who understand seasonality, institutional mechanics and real-time market signals may gain an edge over those following conventional wisdom. The goal isn’t to predict every move. It’s to prepare early, act with discipline and protect your capital when the market proves you wrong.

I hope that helps!

Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading

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