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We’ve got an unusual setup coming Wednesday, and it’s the kind of market condition that can trip up even experienced traders if you’re not paying attention.
Bonds have been drifting sideways for 12 days, range-bound with little conviction. That alone calls for patience. Add a mid-week bond market closure and you’re looking at a slow, fragmented week — not just a single quiet day.
Here’s the situation…
Stock markets will be open Wednesday, but bond markets will be closed for Veterans Day. Expect it to feel like a typical summer day — a slow, low-drip session where the tape just drifts.
While the cash bond market will be shut, Treasury futures and bond ETFs like the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) will still trade, though spreads can widen and signals get noisier.
Price discovery isn’t completely absent — but it’s meaningfully diminished.
Why does that matter? The bond market is what drives the stock market. When it’s closed, people are going to look for any excuse to get out. If there’s no major news — nothing from geopolitical flashpoints or major policy announcements — we can expect a quiet, calm day with low volume and low volatility.
But don’t confuse low volume with low risk. Thin liquidity creates air pockets, and even a mid-tier headline can travel farther than it normally would. Stay alert.
What to Watch Wednesday
If you’re looking for real-time tells, avoid getting too deep into intraday charts — it’s a good way to find noise and not much else. Stick to daily charts for signal quality.
Two things worth watching: semiconductor stocks through the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) and oil prices.
If oil is trending lower and chips are pushing higher, the broader market may have room to continue its bounce or extend its correction. Those are your compass points.
One more tactical note: On slow, low-volume sessions, midday price action tends to be far more meaningful than the open or close. A stock making a high or low of the day around noon carries much more weight than a move at 9:30 or in the final half hour.
Early and late-day moves are cluttered with randomness — midday is where you get your cleaner reads.
Why Mid-Week Holidays Disrupt the Trading Rhythm
Honestly, I really don’t like having holidays in the middle of the week — it’s disruptive for the market. I prefer them on a Monday or a Friday because it doesn’t break up the natural flow of the trading week.
When you drop a closure in the middle like this, it may disrupt the remainder of the week, and since it doesn’t happen very often, it’s hard to say exactly how it’ll play out.
That uncertainty is precisely why discipline matters. This isn’t the kind of environment where you “spray and pray.” You have to be a sharpshooter — very strategic, only taking setups that show real urgency.
If you’re forcing a trade because you feel like you need to be doing something, Wednesday is the day to check that impulse. The market will give you better opportunities when conditions normalize. Patience pays off here.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. Trading always carries a risk of loss. From 5/16/24 to 10/25/2026, on live signals issued in real time, the win rate is 82% with an average return of 32.2% per trade (winners and losers) with an average hold time of one day.
