Here’s something that’s been bugging me lately — and I want to make sure you understand what’s really happening beneath the surface of this market. A lot of traders ask me…
“Roger, why aren’t my stocks moving? The market’s making new highs, but I’m stuck in neutral.”
The answer is simpler than you think: The broad market’s likely not doing anything.
When you strip away the market cap weighting and look at the equal-weighted S&P 500 (RSP), here’s what you’ll find: RSP has done absolutely nothing over the past few weeks. While the headlines celebrate new highs, the real market — is sitting flat.
Let me give you an analogy that I hope you’ll never forget. Imagine you live in America but only travel between Los Angeles and New York. You’re coastal. You see the vibrant lifestyle, packed stadiums, Times Square buzzing with energy.
Everything looks great, right?
But you never venture into the middle of America. The more you move inward, the more you see the struggles — people losing jobs, businesses slowing, real economic cracks forming. Just to be clear, this isn’t a dig at smaller cities. I left LA for a smaller city myself and couldn’t be happier.
That’s exactly what market cap-weighted indexes are showing you right now. They’re like being stuck in LA or New York. But RSP is the cross-country view — every town, every industry, every stock getting equal attention. And when you take that trip, things look a lot less rosy.
What the Market Internals Are Really Saying
Once you look beyond the big-city glow, the data tells a clear story. Breadth and momentum levels are not improving. Momentum across the major indexes is still hovering in the low 50th percentile, which is remarkably weak for an environment where indexes are hitting new highs.
Even more telling, half of the stocks in the Russell 1000 (RUI) — the 1,000 biggest companies in the country — are trading below their 200-day moving average. That kind of split dramatically increases downside vulnerability, and it’s not what you typically see when markets are supposedly roaring ahead.
Sentiment confirms the same story. Put and call buyers are almost perfectly balanced right now, showing no strong emotional bias from traders. This type of neutral sentiment during supposed breakouts is unusual. It hints that the rally is being powered by a handful of leaders, not by broad confidence.
Sector behavior adds another layer. Defensive areas like Consumer Staples (XLP) are quietly moving to the front of the line while speculative names cool off. Breakout numbers are shrinking and breakdowns are rising — roughly 190 stocks pushing upward while more than 218 slide to the downside.
A few weeks ago, there were only a handful of breakdowns to talk about. That’s not the case anymore. The deterioration has been building, and now it’s undeniable.
What This Means for Your Trading
So when you’re wondering why your portfolio feels stuck, remember: You’re judging America by Times Square and Dodger Stadium. RSP shows the full picture, and it tells you when the market’s foundation is a lot weaker than the headlines suggest.
Given these conditions, be cautious. Avoid taking oversized positions at these levels and start looking for selective short opportunities. When the majority of the country isn’t moving, or worse, is sliding backward, you want to stay out of trouble and position accordingly.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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P.S. I’m Making 1 of My Boldest Trading Moves on Monday
Let’s forget about the drama in the Middle East for a second…
I’ll be kicking off one of the boldest moves of my entire career at 1 p.m. ET on Monday…
I’m putting $50K of my own money into a brand-new approach that helps traders like you and me target extra cash within the first 30 minutes of every market day.
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As you’ll see…
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This is one of the boldest moves of my entire three-decade career, solely dedicating $50K to trading what I call “30-Minute Flyers” …
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Most importantly…
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Graham and I Will See You Monday!
We develop strategies to the best of our ability, but cannot guarantee a future return. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The results shown are from LIVE signals from 12/29/25 – 4/20/26. The result was a 63% win rate, a 3.3% average return (winners and losers), and an 11.8% average win with a 1-day hold time.
