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I get a lot of questions about why certain moves in the S&P 500 (SPY) seem to come out of nowhere.
Traders watch their charts, follow the tick, check the VWAP — but they’re still getting blindsided by sudden reversals or momentum shifts.
Here’s what most people don’t realize…
The bond market is about a thousand times bigger than the stock market, and it’s the primary source of the “juice” that powers every major directional move.
Most traders completely ignore bonds, but that’s a mistake. When news comes out, it doesn’t impact the stock market directly — it impacts the bond market first, then stocks get it from bonds.
When Bonds Actually Matter
Now, here’s the key distinction: bonds don’t always matter. They only matter when they’re really moving — and I mean really moving with big, decisive candles.
When I see volatility in bonds, I know I’m going to expect volatility in stocks. If you see bonds making significant moves — the kind of movement that catches your attention — you’ll see that same energy translate to equities.
The relationship is straightforward: when bonds go up, interest rates go down, which is bullish for stocks. When bonds go down, rates go up, which is bearish for stocks.
How to Use This Intelligence
During trading, I watch for those big candles in bonds, then immediately check if the tick indicator is confirming the move. If both bonds and tick are moving together in the same direction, that stock market move has real conviction behind it.
If only one is moving while the other stays flat, it’s likely a “solo candle” that’s going to reverse. That’s how you separate the real moves from the noise.
This isn’t about trading bonds directly — it’s about understanding where the real power comes from. Most retail traders are looking at the wrong market entirely. They’re focused on stock charts while the institutions are watching the bond market for their cues.
Start paying attention to bonds during major announcements or high-volatility periods. That’s where you’ll find the leading signals that drive everything else.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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