The Oil Trade I Took in My Own Account and Why

by Roger Scott | Sep 21, 2026

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I don’t often share my personal trades, but I think transparency matters — especially when it comes to understanding risk and decision-making in real time.

I took a long position in APA Corporation (APA) in my personal account late last week. But I didn’t put this trade in any of my official portfolios, and I want to explain why.

I believe energy prices are going up. I don’t think the war is going anywhere — if anything, the situation could get messier, which may push oil prices higher.

That matters beyond the Energy sector (XLE). My view is that rising oil prices can drive inflation higher, putting pressure on policymakers to maintain or raise interest rates. In other words, oil isn’t necessarily rising because of interest rates — interest rates may be going up because higher oil costs are adding to inflation.

Why I Kept This Trade Personal

This setup is highly news-driven, so I’m being very careful. Geopolitical developments can change quickly, and a single headline could cause APA or the broader Energy sector to reverse sharply. While I’m comfortable taking that risk in my own account, I don’t want to expose members to a position that could whipsaw without warning.

If you believe oil is heading higher and you’re prepared to manage the risk, APA appears to be in a relatively favorable technical position. It is keying off the 15-day moving average and showing signs that it wants to come back. I view it as an A-line type of trade — a setup holding support while attempting to regain strength.

I took shares, not options, because I’m positioning for a directional move based on my macro view. This is not an official trade recommendation, but it is an attractive setup for someone who shares the oil-price thesis and understands the headline risk.

What the Market Is Saying Now

Despite my longer-term thesis, energy stocks are not yet showing clear upside. There is no strong directional bias right now, so expectations need to remain measured. A constructive setup is not the same as a confirmed breakout, particularly when geopolitical news can override the technical picture.

That’s the distinction I want to emphasize: A personal conviction trade can make sense without belonging in an official portfolio. If you’re considering an energy position, evaluate the technicals, monitor the news flow and define your risk before entering. Just because I took this trade doesn’t mean it’s right for you.

I hope that helps!

Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading

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