The Horrific Inflation Report That Could Light a Fire Under the Economy

by Roger Scott | May 14, 2026

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I don’t usually get rattled by economic data. I’ve been doing this for over three decades, and I’ve seen plenty of reports that moved markets. But when I looked at the Producer Price Index (PPI) report that just came out Wednesday, I’m going to be straight with you — this one is absolutely horrific.

PPI came in at 6% and 5.2% excluding food and energy. A year ago, this same number was sitting at 4%. Inflation is up 50% from a year ago, folks, 50%…

That’s not a rounding error — it’s a flashing red warning light.

This isn’t just a bad number — it’s telling us we’re on the brink of something serious. And it comes right after the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed the biggest increase in almost three years on Tuesday.

Add global conflict pushing oil prices through the roof and you get a perfect storm. This lights a fire under our butts to put an end to this war because the ripple effects are getting really, really, really bad.

And before we go further, let me make something clear. I don’t care whose fault it is — the current president, past presidents, yours, mine…

I don’t want to hear about this blame game anymore. We need solutions, urgency and action — not politics.

What’s Really Driving This Crisis

Oil prices are doing far more damage than most people realize. High energy costs aren’t just hitting consumers at the pump — they’re working their way into transportation, manufacturing and service costs. Even the core numbers show that high energy prices are making themselves felt throughout the economy.

Federal Reserve official Austan Goolsbee recently pointed out that the pickup in service inflation — which is not affected by tariffs or energy spikes — is especially concerning.

If services are heating up, that means the underlying economy is running too hot. And he’s right. The Fed has to be thinking about how to break the chain of escalation. That means identifying pressure points, slowing demand where necessary and preventing a feedback loop that keeps inflation burning.

At its core, this entire situation is about energy. And how do you fix it?

You dump oil prices. That would be a good start.

What This Means for the Fed and Your Portfolio

If you’ve been waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, I’ve got news for you. There’s now a 97% chance they’re not going to do anything, and there’s a 0% chance they’re going to lower rates in this environment.

None. Forget about it.

Bonds reacted instantly after the PPI was released. They dropped right toward critical support levels we haven’t tested in years. When the bond market panics, it’s not subtle — it’s a siren.

The bottom line: We’re past the point of pretending this will sort itself out. The PPI report fundamentally changes everything we thought about the trajectory of the economy. It’s lighting a fire under our collective rear end to deal with the forces pushing oil prices higher.

Otherwise, the economic consequences won’t just be painful — they’ll be severe. Stay sharp out there and keep a close eye on energy-related sectors. This ride is far from over.

I hope that helps!

Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading

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