September’s Sector Death Trap: The Data That Could Save Your Portfolio

by Roger Scott | Sep 11, 2025

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Sometimes the market hands you a gift — and that gift is knowing exactly what not to touch.

I just pulled seasonality data on major sectors for the next 10 trading days, and what I found should make every trader pause. We’re talking about win rates so bad they border on predictable failure.

This isn’t gut feeling or market sentiment — it’s 18 years of cold, hard data telling us exactly where the landmines are buried.

The Numbers Don’t Lie — They Scream

Let’s start with Basic Materials (XLB). Over the next 10 days, you’d only win 27% of the time based on the last 18 years of data. That’s not a coin flip — that’s a loaded gun pointed at your account.

Financials (XLF) aren’t any better. The win rate over this same period? A pathetic 33%. These are sectors that typically drive market leadership, and right now they’re statistical poison.

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Health Care (XLV) round out the disaster list, both showing similar patterns of September weakness that have held true for nearly two decades.

The profit factors across all these sectors fall well below what any professional would consider tradeable.

Why This Data Matters More Than Your Opinions

Here’s what separates professional traders from everyone else…

We don’t fight the data. When 18 years of market history tells you something works only 27% of the time, smart traders listen.

I use this type of seasonality analysis to eliminate entire sectors from consideration for new trades. Not because I think they’re bad companies, but because the odds are stacked against me.

In my experience, things usually are just the way they are — and fighting proven patterns is how traders blow up accounts.

This isn’t about being long-term bearish on these sectors. It’s about recognizing that September has a way of punishing specific areas of the market, and smart money stays clear.

The beautiful thing about this data is it’s actionable right now. While other traders are getting chopped up in these sectors, you can focus your attention where the probabilities actually work in your favor.

I hope that helps!

Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading

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