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We’re a mere two weeks from the start of the fourth quarter, and year-end forecasting is tricky business.
But I’ve been watching enough patterns develop to make some specific calls for the next few months. And honestly, I think most traders are positioning for the wrong moves.
Let me break down what I’m seeing — and where I think the smart money should be positioned heading into the new year.
Volatility’s Coming Back
I expect volatility to hover around 15 for now, but I’m looking for it to spike up to 20 over the next three to four weeks. We’re overextended, and we’re overdue for some real movement in the VIX.
That doesn’t mean the market’s about to crash — it just means this calm we’ve been in is temporary. Positioning for that volatility spike now, before everyone else realizes what’s coming, is where the edge is.
On gold, I like the current breakout and where things are positioned, but I don’t think we’re going much higher.
Here’s why: I think the U.S. dollar is going to start coming back, and that’s going to put pressure on gold’s momentum. It’s not a trade I’m holding for the long haul.
The Sector Rotation That’s Actually Working
I’m not changing my tune on sectors — Communication Services (XLC) and semiconductors (SMH) are still going to be the strongest. They have the momentum, and I don’t see that shifting dramatically just because we’re heading into the end of the year.
The theme here isn’t complicated…
Stick with what’s been working instead of chasing rotations that everyone’s talking about but aren’t actually happening yet.
Small caps are going to suffer the most from slower-than-expected rate cuts, so I’m staying away from that trade despite all the noise about a small-cap revival.
Oil should stay range-bound in that $60-$70 area, nothing exciting there. And for those asking about Bitcoin — it needs to bounce above its 50-day moving average for any real breakout.
Until then, it’s just noise.
The key to navigating the year-end isn’t getting fancy with new strategies. It’s recognizing which trends have real staying power and which ones are just seasonal chatter. Stay disciplined, and don’t let the calendar change your process.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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