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I finished mapping out my expectations for 2026, and I’ve got to say — this year’s setup is anything but ordinary.
Between geopolitical chess moves that could reshape energy markets and technological shifts that most people are still underestimating, there’s a lot to unpack.
So let me walk you through what I’m seeing and where I’m positioning myself.
The Venezuela Factor Nobody’s Talking About
Let’s start with oil, because this is where things get interesting.
I’m expecting oil prices to move lower in 2026, largely due to the Venezuela situation. Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves — even more than the Middle East — and with the U.S. now effectively holding influence over how those reserves come online, the dynamic has shifted.
It’s like having the fox in the henhouse — a vivid reminder that this is not a small geopolitical adjustment, it’s a massive strategic advantage.
Think about it this way. It’s like handing someone the keys to a safe with $100 million inside and saying you’ll check back in a couple years. This shift is going to loosen supply and bring energy prices lower, which has downstream effects everywhere — including weakening Russia’s position and potentially accelerating an end to the war.
That’s strategic thinking several steps ahead.
Multiple hedge fund managers I know share this view. It’s not about altruism — it’s about natural resources and leverage.
Meanwhile, I think gold is going to stay supported throughout the year. We’re still facing plenty of uncertainties, and gold remains a true safe haven — unlike Bitcoin, which has become more of a counter-trending market.
Bitcoin, in my view, is likely to stay range-bound. I’d love to see it break out, but right now it’s constrained.
Where I’m Putting My Money: Nvidia and Eli Lilly
When it comes to my top stock picks for 2026, I’m focused on two names: Nvidia (NVDA) and Eli Lilly (LLY).
Nvidia is making more money than just about anyone right now, and the AI infrastructure buildout is just getting started. That’s exactly why I’m loading up on AI exposure.
I didn’t think AI was fully ready in 2025, but by the end of 2027, all the noise about overvaluation is going to be history. Hard AI is going to dominate through 2027, and NVDA is sitting at the center of that explosive trend.
Then there’s Eli Lilly — and this one’s fascinating. The weight loss drug category is just getting started, and Lilly is moving quickly toward solutions that will reshape the entire market. They’re developing a pill form, extended-release versions and aiming to make these drugs about 10 times cheaper to reach mass-market adoption. This is like the internet in 1994 — we’re in the early innings of a revolutionary category.
Beyond weight loss, LLY is pioneering addiction treatment drugs that combine weight loss technology with compounds like Wellbutrin to address cigarette, alcohol and behavioral addictions. The potential here is enormous.
On the macro front, I’m expecting interest rate cuts to begin in June — not March or May — which aligns closely with current Fed thinking. Volatility should spike at least once per quarter this year, three to four times total, which is typical.
And I think the S&P 500 (SPY) will be mildly higher for the year, which creates a strong backdrop for my small-cap catalyst trading approach.
As for sectors, I’m watching Consumer Discretionary (XLY), Financials (XLF) and Communication Services (XLC) as the weakest areas. Consumer staples have been extremely weak — names like Lamb Weston, General Mills (GIS) and Campbell Soup (CPB) are all breaking down.
I think chips and tech are going to be the strongest sectors and that’s where I’m focused.
So 2026 is shaping up to be a year of strategic positioning. The pieces are moving and the opportunities are there for those paying attention.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past Performance is not indicative of future results. The profits and performance shown are not typical. The return performance shown is based on live signals published in real time, shared during the Pre-Market Must Watch session. These are not a backtest or historical study, but all returns must be considered hypothetical. From 8/13/2025 through 12/19/2025, there have been 61 live signals with a 75.4% win rate. Winning “trades” would have produced an average peak move of 64% if the “trade” was timed perfectly to close at the peak market price. Losing “trades” averaged -15,% which would have resulted in an average return of 44.6% per “trade”, including both winners and losers, with an average hold time of less than one day.
