My Q4 Playbook: Where the Market’s Headed and the Stocks That Will Move

by Roger Scott | Sep 10, 2026

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I spent the last few days putting together my outlook for the remainder of 2026, and I want to share it with you because there’s a lot happening beneath the surface right now.

We’re heading into a stretch where uncertainty is going to be the name of the game — and that means you need to know where the opportunities are and where the traps lie.

Let me walk you through what I’m seeing across the board — from interest rates and volatility to the sectors and stocks I’m most bullish and bearish on heading into year-end.

Interest Rates, Volatility and Commodities: What to Expect

First, let’s talk about interest rates staying elevated, with the 10-year Treasury likely holding around 4.25% to 4.5%. This isn’t a short-term blip. We’re dealing with sticky inflation, heavy government spending and a hawkish Federal Reserve — all of which are keeping rates higher for longer.

On the volatility front, I’m expecting one or two volatility spikes that could push the VIX toward 20 before year-end. What’s driving that? A mix of Fed uncertainty, bond weakness, oil volatility, stretched tech valuations and midterm election uncertainty.

And yes, the midterms matter — there’s no way we don’t see some market jitters around that.

For crude oil, I’m looking at $85 per barrel, easing toward $78 by year-end. The market’s pricing things in, and I don’t see oil making a massive move higher or lower from here — just consolidation as the picture becomes clearer.

Now, gold. I know a lot of people have been calling for gold to rally much higher, but here’s my concern…

Gold should consolidate around $4,500 to $5,000 per ounce. If it wasn’t able to rally during the last two or three months with everything happening in bonds, what’s going to make it rally now?

I think we may be topping out here for the short to medium term.

For Bitcoin, I’m expecting it to trade between $85,000 and $99,000 over the next quarter, with resistance near $97,500. Stabilizing oil prices and low utility prices could provide some tailwind, but keep an eye on volume — Bitcoin doesn’t move much without it.

Sectors and Stocks: Where I’m Positioning

As we get closer to year-end, I’m becoming more defensive. Longer-term momentum is pretty flat, even with 64% of S&P 500 companies trading above their 200-day moving averages. That tells me the market still has some resilience, but it doesn’t eliminate the need to be selective.

For the strongest sectors, I’m looking at Health Care (XLV) and Energy (XLE). Health care offers relative stability amid uncertainty while Energy benefits from persistent geopolitical tension. Financials (XLF) remain a wild card — if the Fed raises rates, there may be some movement there.

On the flip side, the weakest sectors are Consumer Discretionary (XLY) and Communication Services (XLC). I’ve been critical of these sectors for a while now, and nothing’s changed.

I believe the upside is going to be extremely limited.

The only wild card? Semiconductors (SMH).

Now, let’s get specific. My strongest stock picks are Bloom Energy (BE), Alphabet (GOOGL) and ServiceNow (NOW). NOW should benefit from the momentum in artificial intelligence, as should GOOGL, and I like how BE’s chart looks.

My weakest stocks are Lululemon (LULU), McDonald’s (MCD) and Papa John’s (PZZA). Why? Consumer demand and interest rates. These stocks are going to feel the pressure as consumers pull back and rates stay elevated.

For SPY, my price target is 7,900 to 8,100 by year-end. Expect more chop and limited upside as bonds, oil and weaker earnings reactions add more uncertainty to the market.

The rest of the year isn’t going to be a straight shot higher — but if you position yourself in the right sectors and stocks, you’ll be ready for whatever the market throws at you.

I hope that helps!

Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading

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