How to Use VIX and Tick Together to Avoid Fakeouts in SPY Trades

by Roger Scott | Jul 16, 2025

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Most traders get faked out because they’re watching the candle but not what’s behind it. A big move on a five-minute chart might look real — but if the internals aren’t backing it, that candle is just noise. That’s why I always check two things before committing: the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) and the Tick index.

These two tools will tell you instantly whether a move in the S&P 500 (SPY) has conviction — or if it’s likely to fall apart in seconds.

Start With Tick for Instant Confirmation

The Tick Index ($TICK) measures how many tickers on the New York Stock Exchange are trading on an uptick versus a downtick. It refreshes every second and shows where the real buying or selling pressure is.

Here’s how I use it: If SPY prints a big green candle, I check whether Tick is spiking above +750. If it’s not, there’s no real buying power. That move is suspect.

If it’s a red candle, I want to see Tick below -750. Anything in between is usually just chop.

Tick gives you immediate confirmation of what’s actually happening under the hood.

Then Watch VIX for Options Market Reaction

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) tracks implied volatility in S&P 500 options — and those options react almost instantly to real movement. If SPY is moving higher and VIX isn’t dropping, that tells me options traders aren’t buying the move.

If the market is rallying and VIX is flat or rising, that’s a major red flag. It means the move probably won’t hold. On the flip side, if the market is pulling back and VIX is spiking, that confirms the selling has real weight behind it.

Pairing Tick with VIX gives you real-time clarity. It’s the fastest way to separate real moves from fakeouts — and avoid getting trapped by candles that don’t mean a thing.

I hope that helps!

Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading

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