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We just locked in a 47 percent move in AMZN while the rest of the market’s been in shambles, so we’ll see what else is hitting ahead of the weekend and more [tap to join us for Stonkamania]!
Let me say something that’s going to bother a lot of traders out there — if you’re obsessed with having a 90% win rate, you care more about being right than making money.
Trading, especially if you’re new, can feel scary. When you’re risking your real money, emotions kick in. There’s a reason paper trading is not real trading. When it’s your capital on the line, every tick feels personal and every loss hits harder than it should.
Your brain naturally hates losing twice as much as it likes winning. This is called loss aversion. That’s why so many traders chase sky-high win rates — not because it makes them profitable but because it protects their ego from feeling that pain.
I get it. Everyone wants to win. It feels good to be right. But here’s what no one tells you: When you have a 90% win rate, you’re probably winning a couple of percentage points each time, and when you’re losing, you’re losing BIG.
That’s not a winning strategy — that’s ego management.
I’m not saying win rates aren’t important at all, because they can tell you a lot about a strategy and whether it works or not, but they’re not the end all be all. Let’s discuss an example that will blow your mind…
The Steve Cohen Reality Check
Steve Cohen, the hedge fund manager, said his traders win just 54% of the time. Let that sink in. One of the most successful traders on the planet runs a shop where people are wrong almost half the time.
And they’re crushing it.
Here’s my take: I would rather be right two times out of 10 than eight times out of 10 if I’m making more money in those two wins than I’m losing in the other eight.
That’s a 20% win rate.
New traders like to see a high win rate because they want to be right. You feel good when you’re right and you’re not used to being a loser. They don’t teach you how to lose in school.
What Actually Matters
Pro traders know the truth: It’s not about the win rate, it’s not about being right — at all. At the end of the day, all that matters is the numbers in your P&L (profit and loss statement).
A loss doesn’t mean you’re bad or you’re a failure — it’s just a normal part of the game. This is some of the best advice I could ever give you, even though most people don’t want to hear it: Be good at losing.
And if you really want to control the emotional side of this business, follow a simple checklist instead of your gut feelings. Gut feelings are what get traders into trouble. A plan keeps you grounded when your emotions try to hijack your decisions.
Think in numbers. Some trades win, some lose. Focus on the results.
My advice? Do a month or two of documenting your trades — or do 100 trades — until you get comfortable. When you see the bigger picture, you stop chasing a high win rate and start chasing profitability. The pressure drops, the fear fades and you finally start trading like a pro.
Order Flow:
This is for informational and educational purposes only. These are not official alerts issued by Lance, but rather some interesting orders picked by the team at Lance Ippolito Trading.
When you look at these plays, always take the market maker move into consideration.
You can be right on the direction but still lose money if the stock doesn’t move enough. That’s where the market maker move comes in clutch.
With puts, they’re often downside hedges in case a stock tanks, especially around earnings. The further out of the money they are, the more likely they are to be hedges.
Also be sure and check when the company’s earnings date is because many of the plays we post here are centered around earnings!
If a stock is really expensive, consider a spread to lower the cost.
And finally, always remember the golden rule when it comes to buying calls: Buy dips, sell rips — and don’t chase!
If a stock’s moved a ton already today, maybe wait for a pullback.
There is inherent risk in trading. Trade at your own risk.
Note: If no date is listed after the month, it’s the monthly expiration (third Friday).
The team at Lance Ippolito Trading
Lance doesn’t want the CCP spying on him, so you’ll never find him on TikTok. Same goes for other social media sites, which are filled with impersonators, scammers and crypto bros.
You can only find him on his personal YouTube Channel — smash that Subscribe button! https://www.youtube.com/@LanceIppolito
And in his private Telegram channel: https://t.me/+-gVwEIwGJhplMTgx
Important Note: No one from the team at Lance Ippolito Trading, New Money Crew or any of its associated brands will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. I Discovered a Weird Options Hack and Now I’ve Done a Complete 180
Imagine having a tactic that allows you to target cash on options automatically…
Even when the underlying stock reverses!
I’ll clue everyone in on this unique options hack at 10 a.m. ET on Saturday, and there’s a very great chance you’ll never approach options the same way again
