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Folks, forget the political theater for a minute and follow the money…
Elon Musk backed candidates in Texas and lost. I attributed some of the weakness in Tesla (TSLA) and other Musk-related investments to that result, but politics doesn’t explain every tick. Rates, sector rotation, company news and options positioning can all move a stock.
I’m not buying the idea that one political loss changes the entire long-term story.
Full disclosure: I have a seven-figure position in SpaceX (SPCX), bought more during the sell-off and was down more than six figures yesterday. I kept buying, so I’ve got skin in the game — and I’m obviously biased here so do your own due diligence.
Political relationships can create access, but they can also create short-term risk. When investors associate a CEO with one side, a change in political power can increase volatility fast.
The price action proved how unreliable simple political narratives can be. The market initially rallied after the election result, then reversed and surrendered those gains the next day.
Follow the Money
Large technology and AI companies like Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Palantir (PLTR) and Anthropic retain influence through political spending, lobbying and continued engagement with the government.
That doesn’t mean they control every outcome, but it helps keep them in the conversation.
Crypto offers a clear example. Fairshake and allied PACs, backed by major industry players, spent heavily to support candidates receptive to clearer digital-asset rules. I’m citing that as an example of organized political influence — not recommending crypto.
I don’t actively follow or favor crypto as an asset class.
The weakness also looked concentrated in AI and other high-momentum names rather than spread evenly across the market. McDonald’s (MDC), Coca-Cola (KO), AAPL, MSFT and AMZN showed relative strength while the crowded trades took the hardest hits.
Trade the Business, Not the Theater
My view was simple…
I don’t think any of the fundamentals changed. I think the election results changed. But that’s a thesis, not a completed fundamental analysis.
For Tesla, watch deliveries, automotive margins, free cash flow, energy storage, pricing and regulatory credits. For SpaceX, watch launch cadence, Starlink subscribers, contract awards, capital needs and private-market valuation marks.
Stop-losses, margin calls and mechanical liquidation can amplify a decline without proving the business deteriorated. I saw that dynamic in Nvidia (NVDA), though that doesn’t prove forced selling caused Tesla’s move.
If the business remains intact while traders panic over politics, opportunity can show up. But I’m not calling the exact bottom. I kept capital available in case these positions fell another 10% and favored gradual entries or confirmation over an all-in bet.
This is a three-to-six-month or longer thesis — not a promise of an immediate rebound. A bullish stock thesis also doesn’t automatically make call options attractive. When implied volatility is elevated, calls can lose value even if shares stabilize or rise modestly.
My preference for SpaceX isn’t a blanket endorsement of every space company. I prefer what I consider the strongest business, while smaller competitors can be far more volatile. Most investors also can’t buy SpaceX directly on a public exchange.
And leveraged ETFs aren’t long-term substitutes for the underlying shares. They reset daily and can drift far from a simple multiple because of volatility and path dependence. I treat them as short-term trading vehicles.
Future fundraising and policy needs may limit how long any political break with Musk lasts. But don’t confuse that possibility with certainty. Follow the business, respect the volatility and trade what’s actually in front of you.
Order Flow:
This is for informational and educational purposes only. These are not official alerts issued by Lance, but rather some interesting orders picked by the team at Lance Ippolito Trading.
When you look at these plays, always take the market maker move into consideration.
You can be right on the direction but still lose money if the stock doesn’t move enough. That’s where the market maker move comes in clutch.
With puts, they’re often downside hedges in case a stock tanks, especially around earnings. The further out of the money they are, the more likely they are to be hedges.
Also be sure and check when the company’s earnings date is because many of the plays we post here are centered around earnings!
If a stock is really expensive, consider a spread to lower the cost.
And finally, always remember the golden rule when it comes to buying calls: Buy dips, sell rips — and don’t chase!
If a stock’s moved a ton already today, maybe wait for a pullback.
There is inherent risk in trading. Trade at your own risk.
Note: If no date is listed after the month, it’s the monthly expiration (third Friday).
The team at Lance Ippolito Trading
Lance doesn’t want the CCP spying on him, so you’ll never find him on TikTok. Same goes for other social media sites, which are filled with impersonators, scammers and crypto bros.
You can only find him on his personal YouTube Channel — smash that Subscribe button! https://www.youtube.com/@LanceIppolito
And in his private Telegram channel: https://t.me/+-gVwEIwGJhplMTgx
Important Note: No one from the team at Lance Ippolito Trading, New Money Crew or any of its associated brands will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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