🚨 I’ll be live at 1:30 p.m. ET 🚨
NVDA is on deck for earnings, as we’ll discuss more in detail below, so let’s see what’s hitting K.I.R.A. and more [tap to join us for Stonkamania]!
Look, I’m gonna be straight with you — the market has done absolutely nothing all lately. The S&P 500 (SPX) is basically flat the past week. Even the VIX is sitting near the lows, which tells you how calm things look on the surface.
But that calm is deceptive. Volatility on the S&P 500 has been dead for weeks, and when things get this quiet for this long, the market turns into a coiled spring. It only takes one major catalyst to snap it.
And that catalyst is today…
Everyone’s in wait-and-see mode for Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. This isn’t just another earnings report — it’s the catalyst that’s going to determine where the entire market heads next.
We’ve seen this play out before. Last November, a single NVDA earnings print drove a 3% intraday swing in the S&P 500. When one company can shake the whole index like that, you respect the setup.
Here’s the reality: We’re staring at a complete coin flip. And remember, nobody has a crystal ball here. If NVDA rallies 10% after earnings, Thursday’s gonna be champagne and bottles popping.
Everyone will love the market. But if it goes the other way? Everything high-beta is getting dragged down with it. Meme names, momentum names, space plays — all of it. These names are basically dead money until this passes, and trying to force trades in them right now is asking to get chopped up.
What Happens if NVDA Drops
Now, a pullback would actually be healthy here. We’re barely 2% off the highs after running almost 20% straight up, so this isn’t some doom-and-gloom scenario. A move down to $200 in NVDA would represent about 10%, and honestly, that might be a little much to expect because a move that big is unlikely.
But the point is, the market hasn’t had real volatility in a long time, and events like this tend to wake it back up fast.
If NVDA disappoints, you might see a flight to safety into Financials (XLF) and Consumer Staples (XLP). In fact, we’re already seeing hints of that rotation — Kroger (KR) was up, banks caught a bid, nothing sexy but definitely defensive money moving around as traders hide from tech risk ahead of earnings.
But don’t expect your momentum plays to hold up. These stocks are extremely volatile and deeply sensitive to shifts in sentiment, and nothing major is going to happen between now and Wednesday to change that.
My Strategy Going Into Earnings
Here’s what I’m doing, and what I’d suggest you consider: Don’t go all out on positions right now. Save some ammunition for later in the week. When implied volatility is this high, betting directionally into an event like this means you have to be absolutely perfect just to break even.
That’s not an edge — that’s gambling before you know which way the wind’s blowing.
And I can’t stress this enough — this is the kind of week where being selective is the edge. Even being a little defensive is smart. There’s no prize for swinging early when the whole market is holding its breath.
We’ll know the answer this evening. Until then, sitting tight and keeping powder dry is the smart play. Once we get that directional signal from NVDA, there will be plenty of opportunities to capitalize on whatever move follows.
The market’s telling you exactly what it’s doing — listen to it. With that all said, here’s how the flow looks today…
Order Flow:
This is for informational and educational purposes only. These are not official alerts issued by Lance, but rather some interesting orders picked by the team at Lance Ippolito Trading.
When you look at these plays, always take the market maker move into consideration.
You can be right on the direction but still lose money if the stock doesn’t move enough. That’s where the market maker move comes in clutch.
With puts, they’re often downside hedges in case a stock tanks, especially around earnings. The further out of the money they are, the more likely they are to be hedges.
Also be sure and check when the company’s earnings date is because many of the plays we post here are centered around earnings!
If a stock is really expensive, consider a spread to lower the cost.
And finally, always remember the golden rule when it comes to buying calls: Buy dips, sell rips — and don’t chase!
If a stock’s moved a ton already today, maybe wait for a pullback.
There is inherent risk in trading. Trade at your own risk.
Note: If no date is listed after the month, it’s the monthly expiration (third Friday).
The team at Lance Ippolito Trading
Lance doesn’t want the CCP spying on him, so you’ll never find him on TikTok. Same goes for other social media sites, which are filled with impersonators, scammers and crypto bros.
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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