How SpaceX Went From $120B to Over $2T

by Lance Ippolito | Jun 8, 2026

Let me break down something wild that’s happening in private markets right now…

Because it’s creating one of the strangest valuation environments I’ve ever seen.

Here’s the pattern: Companies are raising money in private markets, and each raise is basically doubling the valuation within six months to a year. I’m not exaggerating — I’m living it.

I got into SpaceX when it was a $120 billion company. Now? We’re looking at $1.75 trillion, likely hitting at least $2 trillion by the end of the trading day. That’s the kind of move that makes you question everything you thought you knew about valuation.

And here’s what makes this even crazier — the SpaceX IPO is only raising $75 billion total. That’s tiny compared to what we just saw with Big Tech. Google raised $80 billion for AI recently and the stock only fell 2%.

So this SpaceX raise? It’s a drop in the bucket.

But before anyone gets starry-eyed, it’s worth remembering what history shows about mega IPOs. On average, the one-year forward return after a massive IPO includes about a 30% drawdown. That doesn’t kill the bullish case, but it does mean investors should pace themselves.

The Demand Is Already Out of Control

Now let’s talk about what’s really driving this thing — institutional hunger.

Google committed $30 billion to SpaceX. Anthropic is paying them around $1.9 billion. And Fidelity reported that general client demand is already double what the IPO has allocated.

Double. Before it even prices.

And this is where the volatility comes in. When institutions decide they want into a name like SpaceX, they have to make room. That means trimming positions in areas that have run 200-300% over the past month just to free up capital for these IPOs. That’s why you’re seeing bizarre price action in names that shouldn’t be moving — it’s rotation, not fundamentals.

On top of that, SpaceX isn’t just a rocket company. You’ve got Starlink, government and defense contracts, major launch agreements, robotics ambitions and a serious focus on AI. It’s a multi-line technology powerhouse, and institutions know it.

That’s why they’re fighting for allocation.

Why Half the Market Is Wrong

Here’s where it gets interesting from a sentiment perspective…

Half the media is calling this a scam and the top of the market, while the other half says it’s the greatest thing ever. But you have to consider where people are positioned.

If you’re an average investor with no SpaceX allocation, you’re probably salty that venture capitalists are making all the money while you’re left on the sidelines. That creates bias. That creates noise.

At the same time, there’s a lot of snake oil floating around — ETFs and funds claiming they have meaningful exposure to SpaceX or other pre-IPO giants when, in reality, the allocation might be a tiny fraction of what the marketing implies. If you’re going to take the backdoor route, you need real due diligence.

I get it — this valuation doubling every 6-12 months makes traditional analysis almost impossible. How do you determine fair value when the numbers are moving this fast? You can’t use the old playbook.

But that doesn’t mean you throw discipline out the window. For anyone thinking about getting exposure at the IPO, a smart approach is to start small. Maybe a 5% stake, then look to add if the stock pulls back 10, 20 or even 30%. That’s how professionals build positions in volatile new listings.

And if you’re more advanced, early IPO options can be one of the most interesting inefficiencies in the entire market. Market makers often misprice those first batches of contracts because they have no historical data. If the stock IPOs at $150, you might find July $200 calls trading at a bargain. One or two big news hits can move a newly public stock 20-30% overnight, and options often lag behind that reality.

It’s also worth understanding the broader impact of everything about to hit the market. If these major IPOs land this year, you’re looking at nearly 10% of the entire U.S. market cap being added in new listings. That’s not just another news cycle — it’s a shift in the structure of the market itself.

So yes, this environment is wild. Private market valuations are exploding, IPO demand is overwhelming supply and the traditional rules don’t apply anymore. But the biggest mistake you can make is assuming your old framework still works.

The market rewards open-mindedness, not dogma. I’ve missed out on tens of millions by dismissing things that didn’t fit my old worldview. Don’t make the same mistake.

By the way, before SpaceX’s historic IPO, Graham, Nate, Alex and I are going live at 10 a.m. ET on Thursday to reveal the smaller, little-known space stocks they believe could get swept up in the next wave of investor excitement. Be sure and save your seat!

Order Flow:

This is for informational and educational purposes only. These are not official alerts issued by Lance, but rather some interesting orders picked by the team at Lance Ippolito Trading.

When you look at these plays, always take the market maker move into consideration.

You can be right on the direction but still lose money if the stock doesn’t move enough. That’s where the market maker move comes in clutch.

With puts, they’re often downside hedges in case a stock tanks, especially around earnings. The further out of the money they are, the more likely they are to be hedges.

Also be sure and check when the company’s earnings date is because many of the plays we post here are centered around earnings!

If a stock is really expensive, consider a spread to lower the cost.

And finally, always remember the golden rule when it comes to buying calls: Buy dips, sell rips — and don’t chase!

If a stock’s moved a ton already today, maybe wait for a pullback.

There is inherent risk in trading. Trade at your own risk.

Note: If no date is listed after the month, it’s the monthly expiration (third Friday).

The team at Lance Ippolito Trading

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.

P.S. Counting Down the Days Until the Biggest IPO in History

We’re set to witness the biggest IPO in history this Friday…

Are you ready?