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Markets screamed higher into the close Tuesday — the Dow rose 740 points, the S&P 500 popped 2.1%, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) settled in at a 2.4% gain.
That kind of action looks impressive on the surface. But dig a little deeper and this is exactly the kind of post-holiday move that’s easy to misread.
What we’ve got here is a market that’s moving on thin participation. It’s not being led by institutions — it’s likely driven by retail, which means the move can reverse just as quickly as it showed up.
When professional desks are quiet, volatility tends to rise because it only takes a few orders to push prices around.
Delay Isn’t Action — and the Rally Isn’t Real
The only catalyst over the weekend was the delay of tariffs — not the cancellation, not the reduction, just a delay.
That’s not real news. It’s not a real policy change, and it doesn’t carry real economic consequences yet. Markets might be reacting to the headline, but this isn’t the kind of shift that fuels sustainable rallies.
We haven’t broken any major levels in the S&P 500. We’re still in chop. So don’t let the sea of green Monday fool you — this isn’t a breakout, it’s a bounce. That’s why I’m not deploying big size.
You can trade it, but don’t chase it.
If this bounce turns out to be nothing but retail enthusiasm on a quiet day, it’ll unwind fast. Be careful with any directional bets right now.
Kane Shieh
Kane Shieh Trading
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P.S. The Options Market Holds the Key to Market Prediction
I’ve figured out a way to shadow big players in the options market…
And front-run major stock moves before they happen!
