🚨 I’ll be live at 3:30 p.m. ET with Nate Tucci🚨
Nate will cover his MAG7 Money Trade, and we’ll check on AMZN earnings before having a couple of surprise guests [tap to join us for Closing Playbook]!
Most traders approach the market with a fundamental assumption that’s quietly destroying their accounts — they believe markets move enough each day to make directional trades profitable.
The data tells a completely different story.
I want to show you something that changes everything about how you should think about trading options. Over the past decade, the S&P 500 (SPX) stayed within a 1% daily range more than 75% of the time.
Let that sink in for a moment…
Three out of four trading days, the market just doesn’t move that much. Investors turning toward the stock market is the right idea, but almost all of them are learning a dead wrong approach if they want any chance of succeeding.
And if you’re trading options and holding them longer than a couple of hours, you need that 1% plus move to make money. The problem? It just doesn’t happen enough.
We’re flipping the lack of direction from day to day on its head. Remember, these studies show that active traders are losing around 90% of the time. This isn’t theory — this is cold, hard market reality that’s been consistent for years.
Why Active Trading Is Statistically Doomed
I’m sure you’ve experienced this: You pick what looks like a solid directional trade and then you watch your options melt away as the market just sits there. Maybe it bounces up a bit, drifts down a bit but never moves enough to make your trade work.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth — it’s not necessarily that you’re picking bad trades. The problem is that directional trading is basically doomed because there’s not enough movement for those options.
Most traders are trying to squeeze profits out of volatility that simply isn’t there.
And it’s not just me saying this. Studies have shown that it’s nearly impossible to actively trade successfully. One CNBC report put it bluntly…
“We show that it is virtually impossible for individuals to day trade for a living. We find that 97% of all individuals lose money.”
Think about what that means. Active traders are losing around 90% of the time. Why? Because they’re buying short-term options inside a market that just doesn’t have strong direction.
Over time, that’s a recipe for disaster.
Flipping the Equation on Its Head
But here’s where it gets interesting. What if instead of fighting against this statistical reality, you could trade in a way that actually benefits from it?
What if you could trade in a way that relies on the market not making a huge move, like the data shows is so very likely? Instead of betting on big swings, you position yourself to profit from the quiet — the very thing most traders underestimate.
That starts by shifting from predicting direction to trading probabilities. Instead of buying options that decay unless you catch a rare outsized move, you sell premium at strike prices that sit far outside the market’s typical daily range.
You’re not betting on a big move — you’re betting on the far more likely outcome that the market stays within its normal boundaries.
In other words, the exact opposite scenario that just about every other trader is applying. That turns this shocking reality into a hidden gold mine.
This is about fundamentally rethinking your approach. The market can bounce up or down or go nowhere at all — but as long as it avoids making an extreme move in one direction, you profit. And remember, it tends to stay within a range 75% of the time.
Most traders are trying to predict direction in a market that barely moves. The professionals? They’re profiting from the lack of movement itself.
That’s not just a different strategy — it’s a completely different way of thinking about what an edge actually means.
Kane Shieh
Kane Shieh Trading
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
Important Note: No one from The TradingPub team or Kane Shieh Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. Historical Market Pattern Lets You Target Morning Payouts…
Historically, the markets rarely move more than 0.5% a day on average.
But I’ve found a way to turn the market’s limitations into daily income opportunities…
We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. From 02/04/2025 – 02/03/26, the average win rate on live published trade alerts is 72.6%. The average return on a $5k starting stake is $207.34 on both winners and losers, with an average hold time of less than 24 hours.
