Tariffs, China and Trading Risks: What Smart Money Is Doing Right Now

by | Apr 15, 2025

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If you’re feeling uneasy about this market, you’re not alone — and you’re not wrong.

We’ve got a stew of uncertainty bubbling up right now, and most of it points back to China and tariffs. These aren’t just headlines anymore. They’re actively shaping supply chains, business decisions and retail data — and it’s happening in real time.

I’m hearing stories from every angle. Consumers are panic buying ahead of tariffs. Retailers are pushing orders through while they still can. My own sister couldn’t even get one of her top five car picks — she had to settle for a model that wasn’t even on her list. That’s not normal consumer behavior. That’s fear of missing out before prices jump.

Business And Supply Chains Are Just As Jittery

On the business side, it’s even messier. My wife runs a supplement manufacturing business that depends on materials from China. Lately, her suppliers won’t even quote prices. They’re saying, “We can’t transact — we have no idea what the tariffs will be.” That’s how frozen this pipeline is getting.

When companies can’t price product, they stop moving product. And that kind of supply freeze will show up later in earnings. Don’t be surprised if forward guidance is softer than expected — not because business is bad, but because uncertainty is high. Markets don’t like guessing games, especially when it’s about costs and revenue.

So while retail sales might come in strong on paper — and they probably will — don’t get too excited. That strength is likely front-loaded. It’s not organic demand growth. It’s just fear-driven buying ahead of potential price hikes.

Cash And Caution Are Winning Right Now

In this kind of environment, cash isn’t just safe — it’s strategic. Smart money isn’t chasing. It’s waiting. With headline risk dominating every session, staying on the sidelines is not a bad move. You’re not going to lose money by watching and waiting. You might not make money either, but the risk-reward profile right now heavily favors preservation over aggression.

And let’s not forget: It’s a holiday week. Shortened time frame, lighter volume, and a distracted Wall Street. This isn’t the week to force trades. Unless we get a wave of unexpected news — which, to be fair, is always possible — this market is likely to stay choppy and reactive.

Bottom line: Smart money isn’t trying to outguess the news cycle. It’s staying defensive, keeping exposure light, and waiting for a cleaner setup. In a market this headline-sensitive, that’s not weakness — that’s discipline.

Kane Shieh
Kane Shieh Trading

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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk. 

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WRITTEN BY<br>Kane Shieh

WRITTEN BY
Kane Shieh

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