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1 Bullish, 1 Bearish Trade to Watch Before Tuesday’s Open

by | Nov 1, 2021

And so November begins with U.S.  Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen fueling bullish sentiment in stocks while futures bid up to start the month. 

There are a few crucial stocks to watch the week of Nov. 1, and events we need to prepare for on the economic front. What happens this week will play a key role in how the rest of the month shapes up in the markets — and the tone will surely be set by the Federal Reserve…

The Fed’s two-day FOMC meeting ending Wednesday could be when we finally get the details on if the central bank will be tapering its bond-buying program. However, I expect them to pass the buck yet again and balk at decisive moves to curb inflation. 

There’s no doubt in my mind that a big tapering move would disrupt the risk asset honeymoon. 

The next crucial data after the FOMC meeting is the jobs number this Friday. Last month was disappointing, as nonfarm payrolls came in at 194,000 while the market was looking for 500,000! 

The number was soft, to say the least… 

So now we’re looking for something around 450,000… but I can’t help but wonder if we’re setting up for more disappointment. 

The market took it all in stride last time, but a second time would establish a weaker trend — not a one-off event — and we could have a stronger, negative, reaction from stocks.

And that’s the last thing traders need.

However, we can’t forget that we have a ton of earnings rolling in — meaning we have a ton of stocks to watch the week of Nov. 1!

Stocks to Watch the Week of Nov. 1 as Earnings Roll In

The earnings report for Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) comes out before the market opens on Tuesday.

The market is looking for Pfizer to boost 2021 guidance on the back of COVID-19 vaccine sales. What I find more interesting will be the company’s guidance on 2022 estimates for the vaccine. 

Right now, the consensus is $22.2 billion, which is about 37% below this year’s sales… 

Production is ramping up though, and the demand for it in middle-income countries — as well as the possible boost in the younger demographic — could create upside. 

The stock is expected to move 4.5% the day after earnings… which is about double the normal post earnings move for PFE.  

I like taking a bullish standpoint here, as the stock moving to the upside looks like it’ll make new highs. Meanwhile,  moves to the downside are limited to the 200-day moving average.

Another stock to watch the week of Nov. 1 is Expedia Group Inc. (Nasdaq: EXPE) — earnings come out on Thursday after the closing bell.

The post-COVID-19 world is upon us and one indicator I’m honing in on is travel… And Expedia is the online titan.  

Wall Street has been looking for EXPE to deliver the revenue quarter since 2019. Vrbo is a jewel in Expedia’s portfolio and has been very resilient through the pandemic. It should be the focal point in earnings to offset weak international travel bookings.

However, I’m more neutral to bearish on this chart.

Caution, trader’s: A massive 7.6% one-day move is implied to occur the day after earnings.

Let me know what you think about the stocks to watch the week of Nov. 1.

As always, send any trading questions to jeff@joyofthetrade.com and stay ahead of the markets, especially these choppy ones, by subscribing to our YouTube channel.

WRITTEN BY<br>Jeff Zananiri

Jeff Zananiri

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