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I’ve been watching Bitcoin closely over the past few weeks, and the story it’s telling through volume is one you need to pay attention to. When volume starts declining the way it has been, it’s not just noise — it’s a signal that price may be heading lower.
I haven’t anticipated Bitcoin breaking much higher for three key reasons. First, energy prices remain elevated, which matters because mining costs can affect profitability and market participation. Second, there’s no major catalyst on the horizon to drive a sustained rally. Third — and most importantly — volume is declining, telling us that fewer participants are supporting the move.
What the Technical Setup Shows
Bitcoin is working its way down toward the eight-day exponential moving average (EMA). If volume continues on its current trajectory, the 15-day EMA could be the next destination. This isn’t about guessing where price will go — it’s about reading the relationship between participation, momentum and nearby technical support.
Below the current price is a specific area I call a liquidity pocket. Other traders may describe it as a balanced area, but I use “liquidity pocket” because it captures what the zone represents…
A pocket of balance where buying and selling previously found equilibrium. When momentum fades, price can gravitate toward an area like this as the market searches for balance again.
Where X Marks the Spot
That liquidity pocket is the area marked by the X on the chart, and it’s where I expect Bitcoin could eventually move if volume continues to decline.
The eight-day EMA and 15-day EMA may serve as steps along the way, but the balanced zone below remains the larger area to watch.
When you combine elevated energy prices, the absence of a major catalyst and weakening volume, the roadmap becomes clearer. None of these factors guarantees a decline, but together they make a sustained breakout less likely and strengthen the case for a move toward lower support.
Volume doesn’t lie. When participation starts coming off like this, you need to adjust your expectations accordingly. Right now, the technical setup points lower.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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P.S. Have You Heard About the October Effect?
It’s a pattern where specific stocks soar at almost the same time every October…
In fact, I’m eyeing this ticker to outshine the rest.
We won’t make reckless guarantees when it comes to the market.
But if you want to get the name of this stock..
