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I’m BACK! Today we’ll cover minor trend considerations like high volume, gaps, catalysts and non-random moves against the trade, major trend considerations like short- and long-term structure, support and resistance, the option selection process and more [tap to join us for the VIP Trade Room]!
I need to share something with you that goes against what most traders think matters. Everyone’s obsessed with win rates — being right 70%, 80%, even 90% of the time.
I get it. It feels good to be right.
But here’s the thing: Win rate isn’t what determines whether you actually make money. I’m a bottom line kind of guy, and the metric that truly matters is profit factor.
Profit factor shows you for every dollar you lose, how much you make. That’s it. It’s simple, and it’s the most honest measure of whether a trading strategy actually works.
Let me give you a real example. Recently, I was looking at a trade with a profit factor of 10.5 over 22 trades with an 86% win rate. That means for every dollar you lose, you make $10.50. Who wouldn’t take that trade?
But here’s what surprises people: I know professional traders who have a win rate of 25%, and they have a profit factor of 8. Think about that. They’re wrong 75% of the time, but they’re still crushing it because when they win, they win big enough to more than compensate for their losses.
Why Win Rate Can Be Misleading
If you’re only focused on being right, you might be leaving serious money on the table. A high win rate feels good psychologically, but it doesn’t tell you anything about the size of your wins versus your losses.
You could be right 80% of the time and still lose money if your winners are small and your losers are big. Conversely, you can be wrong more often than you’re right and still build wealth if your profit factor is strong.
If your focus is exclusively on win rates of 80% and above, you should wait for better trades. But the profit factor should always be your primary consideration.
Someone asked me recently about the difference between average return and profit factor. Average return shows the natural proclivity of how much a stock moves up or down. Profit factor calculates wins and losses on actual trades.
They’re apples and oranges — one shows you potential movement, the other shows you real bottom-line results.
Real Numbers That Matter
Let me show you what this looks like in practice. Let’s say you have a 3.31 profit factor on 173 trades with a 75% win rate and an average hold time of 6.7 days.
That’s beautiful.
What does that tell you? It tells you this approach works consistently over time. You’re not just winning trades — you’re making meaningful money relative to what you’re risking.
The key is having the information upfront so you can make intelligent decisions before you commit capital. You want to see every trade, the dates, the combined win rate and the profit factor laid out clearly. Then you decide for yourself whether it fits your risk tolerance and trading style.
It’s not all just about the win rate, it’s about the profit factor. That’s the metric that shows whether you’re actually building wealth or just collecting small wins while taking big losses.
Stop chasing the feeling of being right. Start focusing on the bottom line — because that’s what actually pays the bills.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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P.S. 1 AI Breakthrough I Bringing Me and Lance Together
Lance Ippolito and I don’t agree on a lot of things…
But we are putting our differences aside this Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET to co-host a one-time live event.
Why?
To share a shocking AI secret responsible for forecasting a stock’s moves over the next few days…
And opening the window to target 2x gains and even more on options…
Not in weeks.
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I know how that sounds…
But this AI secret tracks unusual option spikes in the market…
Options spikes that trigger a cascade of buys all from the biggest players on Wall Street…
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I’ve traded the markets for three decades…
Managed multi-million-dollar hedge funds with partners who included the likes of the current top economic advisor to President Trump…
I even helped one of the world’s richest families manage their wealth…
And in all that time… this is one of the most shocking breakthroughs I’ve ever come across.
The best part is, when you join in at 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday…
Not only will you see how this AI secret works in real time…
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I won’t make reckless guarantees about the stock market…
But if you’d like to get access to this AI secret at no cost…
We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but no one can guarantee the future. There is always a risk of loss when trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The stated results are based on live-tracked signals from 2/25/26 to 4/25/2026. The win rate has been 89% on the options with an average return of 80% over a two-day hold time.
