🚨 Closing Playbook is off today🚨
Don’t worry, we’ll be back tomorrow — but in the meantime, you can join Diana for Trade of the Day at 5 p.m. ET [tap to join her]!
Here’s the thing about energy right now…
While some traders are positioning for longer-term moves, I’m taking a different view on the shorter time frame. I’m aligned with the broader idea that energy has a solid downside floor, but only through the end of May.
On this shorter window, I’m simply not as concerned about it ripping back up.
I just put on an iron condor on Energy (XLE) using strikes between 55 and 60 after originally considering a slightly wider 54 to 60 setup. This isn’t a directional bet on energy breaking out or collapsing — it’s a calculated play that XLE stays range-bound over the next several weeks.
The point of this structure is straightforward. It defines risk while giving me a solid opportunity to collect premium if XLE behaves the way I expect. Since my Closing Playbook cohort Nate Tucci and I share the same downside floor assessment, it reinforces the idea that on this shorter time frame, you can get paid pretty well on XLE without needing a major move.
The Range-Bound Opportunity in Energy
The time frame is what makes this setup work. By keeping the trade focused through the end of May, the risk becomes more about containment than direction.
That distinction is important because it lets me take advantage of premium decay while avoiding the bigger directional bets others may be making further out.
My strikes at 55 and 60 reflect that view. They capture the range I expect XLE to hold, and provide a rewarding risk-reward profile for a near-term trade. The upside is less of a concern because, within this shorter window, the catalysts that might push energy sharply higher seem less likely to materialize.
The shared floor assessment helps anchor the trade on the downside while the shorter duration helps mitigate the upside risk. Given the premiums available right now, the compensation is more than reasonable for taking that stance.
Why the Oil Market Looks Contained
I’m comfortable with this range-bound perspective because of how the oil market has been absorbing geopolitical concerns. The Middle East conflict injected volatility earlier, but the market appears to be settling as that risk premium gets priced in more fully.
That absorption matters because it reduces the odds of a sudden spike that would threaten the upper end of my range. Without fresh catalysts, oil looks more likely to trade in a contained band, which in turn helps keep XLE within the boundaries of my condor.
The May expiration is intentional. It’s long enough to generate meaningful premium but short enough to sidestep the larger, more unpredictable forces that could emerge later. The goal is simple — get paid for a defined period of expected stability without overreaching into long-term forecasting.
Kane Shieh
Kane Shieh Trading
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
Important Note: No one from The TradingPub team or Kane Shieh Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. The Force Controlling the S&P 500’s Daily Finish
Hi, Kane here. If you can keep a secret…
There’s been a major shift in the options market that’s creating a huge opportunity for traders in the know.
And while most folks will likely never hear about this shift, let alone have a chance to profit from it.
This shift has now opened the door to a reliable way to target double- and even triple-digit moves in the stock market every day, regardless of what comes from the Middle East next.
All thanks to a little-known market force that’s now controlling the S&P’s price action most days.
A force that’s been rising in the options market and completely altering how the market moves on a day-to-day basis.
The same force that I’ve been using to pinpoint the market’s likely finish with a stunning 79.4% accuracy.
In the same period, tariffs also bled trillions from the market before the Iran war.
And this Saturday at 11 a.m. ET, I’ll show you how this force actually controls where the S&P 500 will close that day, down to the last dollar.
You’ll see how you can find this force in real time and place trades targeting double- or even triple-digit returns before the close every market day.
I won’t be alone.
My buddy and former hedge fund manager Roger Scott will be at this special event as I spill the secrets.
I won’t make reckless guarantees when it comes to trading.
But while folks would rather focus on the fear narratives the media keeps spinning around every minute…
You can be among the few with inside information on this overlooked force in the S&P 500…
And how you can tap into this same force to target same-day returns.
We develop tools and strategies to the best of our ability, but we can’t guarantee the future. In LIVE trading alerts in real time from 08/23/24 to 3/28/26, the strategy is 54-14, with an overall win rate of 79.4% and an average return (winners and losers included) of 59.3%, with an average winner of 86.8% over a 1-day hold time. Trade at your own risk.
