Light volume doesn’t just mean traders are on vacation — it often tells you a lot more than people realize. When volume is weak and prices drift higher, it’s a very different kind of market behavior than when strong volume drives a breakout.
We saw that dynamic in full view heading into Friday’s session.
S&P 500 (SPY) volume was sitting at just 37% of average by midday, with only four hours left in the trading day. That tells you right away this isn’t a rally with conviction.
You can’t trust a breakout when it’s being driven by air. Even if prices are ticking up, the lack of participation means there’s no urgency to chase, no pressure under the surface.
It’s just a float higher.
Light Volume Means Hesitation — Not Confidence
You also have to remember where volume usually concentrates — the first and last hour of the session. If you’re halfway through the day and still under 40% of the average, you’re likely in a ghost market.
And that means stocks are more vulnerable to news shocks or sudden reversals when there’s no real flow behind the price action.
On this particular Friday (June 27, 2025), a live White House press conference and Supreme Court rulings added another layer of uncertainty. That kind of backdrop can freeze activity fast. Light volume is often a sign of hesitation — not confidence.
One of the most important things to understand about volume is that it reflects behavior. When institutions step in, they move markets — and it shows up in the tape.
But when they’re sidelined, the market just marks time. That’s when retail traders end up chasing shadows and making mistakes.
This is the kind of environment where you have to be selective. You don’t want to chase a low-volume drift just to get clipped when real volume returns. Patience is a position — especially when 20% of trading mistakes already come from basic errors.
Don’t add chasing weak setups to the list. Without volume, there’s no confirmation — just noise.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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