Everyone wants to know where the market is headed. But the truth is, right now, even the market doesn’t know.
I’ve said it before — when the internals don’t confirm price action, you don’t have a real move. You’ve got noise.
And this week, the signals were all over the place.
The advance-decline line is soft. Volatility is flat. Tick trends aren’t showing any strength. Volume isn’t backing anything. It’s all just drifting — and drifting markets are dangerous.
Traders keep asking if it’s time to get long. My answer?
Show me something worth following. Until I see confirmation from internals — not just a green open or a headline pop — I’m not committing capital. Not in size, not in duration.
The problem with trading in this kind of environment is that people think “nothing’s happening” means it’s safe. It’s not. In fact, it’s the opposite. These low-volume, no-confirmation days lull traders into thinking they’ve got a handle on things.
Then the floor drops out, or the rally fades, and they’re left holding the bag.
What the VOLD and Tick Say About Risk
VOLD’s not moving — it’s chopping. And when VOLD is chopping, the S&P 500 (SPY) doesn’t have a directional compass. TICK spikes are short-lived and inconsistent. Internals like these don’t support follow-through. They support fake-outs.
I’ll say it again…
Don’t treat this kind of action like opportunity. Treat it like a warning. The smart play is staying light and fast — or staying out. If you’re looking for a breakout, wait for confirmation. If you’re not seeing it in the internals, you’re not seeing it at all.
This isn’t a market to guess in. This is a market to survive. No confirmations, no commitments. That’s how you stay in the game.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
- Telegram:https://t.me/+_vmfwkeP8fA5YWQ5
- YouTube:https://www.youtube.com/@Roger-Scott/videos
- Instagram:https://www.instagram.com/thetradingpub/
- Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/TheTradingPubOfficial
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/Rogerscott1970
Important Note: No one from The TradingPub team or Roger Scott Trading will ever message you directly on Telegram.
P.S. If History Repeats Itself, the Market Could Close the Year in the Red!
You see, when the market’s lost over 15% of its value, it’s closed in the red for the year 81% of the time…
And now, we could be on the verge of something even bigger. But there’s a way to sidestep the upcoming chaos…
