Monday’s manufacturing data came in softer than expected, which tells us that the economy is slowing. Factory Orders and JOLTS reports at 10 a.m. ET will set the tone for today.
We have Crowdstrike (CRWD) and Hewlett Packard (HPE), two important tech stocks, on deck for earnings today and then some big retail reports on Wednesday…
Gold is sitting just below its quarterly VWAP and right at its 50-day moving average. There’s an inverse relationship between commodities and interest rates. And I believe the move higher in the 10-year note is just temporary.
There’s still a 16% chance the Fed could lower rates in July. If the 10-year keeps going up, the chances of a cut will keep going up.
But we all know that the odds of the Fed cutting rates in July are next to ZERO. At some point, reality will set in with people buying the 10-year, and it will revert lower.
And when that happens, it will cause gold and commodities to go higher.
So I expect bonds to come up a little more before the Fed says there’s no way it’s cutting in July…
I’ll cover all that, my daily hitlist of longs and shorts and more in this morning’s “Premarket Must Watch” video!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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