>>>I’m hosting a critical market briefing at 1 p.m. ET on Monday, when I’ll share my predictions on tariffs, gold, oil and major assets like Bitcoin!<<<
It’s easy to get lulled into a false sense of security when you stare at charts all day. They make the market’s moves look neat and clean — a nice little line trending up or down.
But I’m here to tell you the truth. Charts can lie. And if you rely on them alone, you’re setting yourself up to get blindsided.
I’ve made this mistake plenty of times myself. You’re watching the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) or the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the candles look harmless. A little dip here, a little rally there. Nothing you couldn’t handle, right?
Wrong. Because what those candles don’t tell you — unless you dig deeper — is the size and severity of the move happening underneath.
Why You Must Watch the Raw Numbers
One of the biggest mistakes traders make is ignoring the raw index moves. A chart might look like a casual 1% drop. But if you pull up the actual numbers, you realize the Dow is down 800 points.
That’s not a normal day — that’s a market event.
Charts show direction, but they don’t show magnitude. And when you’re trading in a volatile environment like we are right now, magnitude matters.
For example, semiconductor stocks in the Technology sector (XLK) might look like they are just slightly pulling back. But when you check the numbers, you find the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down 9% on the day. That is not the time to go hunting for a bounce. That’s a full-blown liquidation.
How to Add the Missing Piece
Here’s the extra step every trader needs to take — watch the raw futures or cash market numbers alongside your charts. Have the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures up where you can see them at all times.
You want to know if the S&P 500 is down 20 points or 120 points. You want to know if the Nasdaq 100 is down 50 points or 500 points. There’s a huge difference between normal price action and a market under real stress.
I still get caught sometimes when I only glance at charts and don’t check the depth of the move. But I can tell you — when I watch the raw numbers, I make better decisions.
Bottom line — charts are just the first step. If you’re not also tracking the size of the move, you’re missing the full story. Don’t be the trader who finds out too late.
I hope that helps!
Roger Scott
Roger Scott Trading
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P.S. Could the Bear Market Be Over?
We saw the third-largest single-day rally in the S&P 500 since the end of WWII on Wednesday.
The market closed after a whopping 9.5% bounce.
Now you might be asking… “Is the bottom in?”
Well, considering the fact that only a few hours prior, the VIX was ranging above the 50-point mark…
I’d say the market is still very fragile.
Market volatility is at levels we haven’t seen since the 2008 housing crash and the 2020 COVID crash…
Which is why I’ll be hosting a critical State of the Market briefing at 10 a.m. ET on Monday!
I’ll share my predictions on:
✅ Major Market Movers like Trump’s tariffs, interest rates, and volatility levels…
✅ Major Commodities like Gold and Oil…
✅ Major Assets like Bitcoin and a price target on the S&P 500 you can’t afford to miss!
Plus, I’ll even share my No. 1 stock to take advantage of April’s volatility!
All you have to do is register to attend for free.
When you sign up, I’ll send you a copy of my special notes for you to outline everything I see coming!
If there’s one live event you attend this year…
