If you’ve been watching the markets lately, you’ve probably noticed the same thing I have — volatility is off the charts, but there’s no clear direction.
Every time we get a big move up or down, the media scrambles to find a news story to explain it — just like with the tariff news Friday into Monday.
But the truth is, the market isn’t reacting to the news as much as people think. It’s reacting to technical levels.
Since December, I’ve been pointing out how the S&P 500 has been stuck in a wide, choppy range. We’ve got resistance around $610 and support down near $570.
Until the market breaks out of that range with real momentum and a strong catalyst, we’re going to keep seeing this back-and-forth action.
Friday was a perfect example…
The market hit the top of the range I’ve been talking about for months, and then we saw a sharp pullback. The media blamed it on tariffs, but that doesn’t hold water. We’ve known about those tariffs for weeks if not months.
There was nothing new in that announcement. What really happened was simple — the market hit a key resistance level and reversed. The news just gave people something to latch onto.
And this isn’t just a one-off situation.
For the past 2 ½ months, every time the S&P 500 moves up toward the top of the range, something “happens” to send it back down. And when it drops to the bottom of the range, some positive news “coincidentally” shows up to push it higher.
But if you’ve been paying attention, you know the market is moving in this range because of technical levels, not headlines.
That’s why I’ve been saying the market is in a high-volatility, range-bound environment. This isn’t about unpredictable events — it’s about predictable patterns. The market needs a real catalyst to break out of this range, and until that happens, we’re going to keep chopping sideways.
So what does this mean for traders?
It means you need to be cautious about reacting to the news. The headlines will tell you one thing, but the charts are telling you something else. Focus on the technical levels. Watch for the market to break above resistance or fall below support with strong momentum. Until then, expect more of the same choppy action.
This kind of environment is perfect for income strategies like spreads. You don’t want to get too aggressive with directional trades right now. Instead, balance your positions.
If you go long on one trade, consider going short on the next to keep your portfolio balanced. The key is to stay flexible and not get caught up in the noise.
The market will eventually break out of this range — it always does. But until we see that decisive move, don’t let the headlines distract you from what’s really driving the market.
The charts are your best guide right now.
Kane Shieh
Kane Shieh Trading
Follow along and join the conversation for real-time analysis, trade ideas, market insights and more!
Important Note: No one from The TradingPub team or Kane Shieh Trading will ever contact you directly on Telegram.
*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
P.S. The Smart Money Is All Over This Secret Stock Skyrocketing
If you missed yesterday’s urgent briefing, you have another chance at 3 p.m. ET today! I’ve spotted a massive options order on an overlooked company that could soar past $130 a share.
This stock’s doubled in the past year, hit all-time highs, is projected for a 45% earnings jump, and was just named “IBD Stock of the Day.” With a major earnings announcement just days away, a breakout could happen any moment.
I’ll reveal the ticker and my plan to target a 100% return using a breakthrough method — but you’ll need to turn on Telegram notifications to catch it. We can’t guarantee results, but this play looks ready to explode.
