Just because you have a trade idea doesn’t mean it’s time to trade.
That’s where most people go wrong. They come up with a thesis — oil is stabilizing, the S&P 500 is breaking out, some stock is undervalued — and they jump right in.
But having a trade idea is only the first step. The second, and often more important, step is timing. And great traders wait for confirmation.
Price and Volatility Give You the Signal
Start with your criteria…
For me, those are usually based on price and volatility. If I believe oil is stabilizing around $65 a barrel, I don’t just fire off a trade the moment it touches that level. I need confirmation.
What does that look like? Sideways price action in a defined range — say, three days in a row between $62 and $67 — with narrower bars and declining volatility.
That’s what gives me confidence that my thesis is starting to play out.
You don’t need an analyst desk or intelligence reports to make that call. You just need the discipline to wait. If the market is chopping in the zone you expected — and not breaking down or accelerating through it — that’s data you can act on.
If not, then the trade idea is still just an idea.
Set Your Criteria Before You Trade
The key is defining your timing criteria before you ever place a trade. Don’t wait until you’re staring at a chart and hoping it slows down. Decide in advance: What kind of price action do you want to see? What level of volatility confirms your thesis?
If you can’t answer those questions, you’re not ready to trade. You’re guessing.
Waiting doesn’t mean being passive. It means being precise. It means letting the market give you the signal — and being ready when it does. Great traders don’t just pick ideas.
They know exactly what has to happen before they pull the trigger.
That’s what separates trading with intent from trading with emotion. And the more consistently you follow that process, the more repeatable — and profitable — your trades will become.
Kane Shieh
Kane Shieh Trading
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*This is for informational and educational purposes only. There is inherent risk in trading, so trade at your own risk.
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