If you’ve been following my videos since December, you’ve probably heard me repeat this more times than I can count: The market is trading in a wide, choppy range, and it’s not going to break out until we see a decisive move above or below key levels.
And every time we hit one of those levels, something convenient happens in the news that supposedly explains the market’s move.
Let’s look at what just happened.
The S&P 500 reached the top of the range I’ve been talking about for months — $570 to $610 in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY). And right on cue, we got confirmation that tariffs on Canada, Mexico (these two have now been put on hold for a month) and China were going into effect.
Cue the sell-off.
But here’s the thing — we’ve known about these tariffs for months. The Feb. 1 deadline wasn’t new information. So why did the market suddenly act like it was?
Because it wasn’t really about the news.
This is a perfect example of how key technical levels shape market moves, not the headlines that just make the most noise. The market was already primed to reverse once it hit resistance.
It just needed a story to justify it. In this case, the media latched onto the tariff news, even though the market had priced that in long ago.
Think about it — is it really a coincidence that big, market-moving news seems to happen exactly when we hit critical support or resistance levels? Or is it more likely that the market moves were going to happen anyway, and the headlines are just a convenient explanation?
I’d argue for the latter.
The market doesn’t move because of the news. The news gives people a reason to believe the move makes sense. But if you’ve been watching the charts, you could have seen this coming without a single headline.
Since December, the S&P 500 has been bouncing between key levels, and until we get a proper catalyst with momentum, it’s going to keep doing that. The news might speed up the move or exaggerate the volatility, but it’s not the underlying cause.
And here’s where traders get into trouble.
They start chasing the headlines, thinking that every piece of news is the reason behind the market’s movement. But if you’re focused on the technicals — the real structure of the market — you’ll realize that the news is often just noise.
The market is a reflection of collective sentiment, but that sentiment is already baked into the price action. Headlines might trigger short-term reactions, but unless there’s a fundamental shift in the broader environment, those moves are often temporary.
So, next time you see a big market move and the media rushing to explain it with some headline, ask yourself this: Was the news really the cause? Or did the market just hit a key level and do what it was already going to do?
Chances are, the charts had the answer long before the headlines did.
Kane Shieh
Kane Shieh Trading
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