We’re entering the knock-on effect stage of the bear market, where we see rumors of bank failures (Credit Suisse), lawsuits against celebrities (Kim Kardashian), and credit crises in both corporate and sovereign debt (U.K. gilts). We’re also waking up to more news bombs from individual companies…
What a way to start this week’s Wall Street look ahead!
That said, you’d expect futures to be down a ton this Monday morning as I type this during the premarket hours. But you’d be wrong! We’re up, and up quite a bit…
The market is deeply oversold and looking for a technical bounce — I like bounces on bad news. The problem is I expect the news to keep coming and to keep getting worse, so all bounces will be sharp and short-lived for the fourth quarter, I expect.
No real earnings to look for this week so here’s the big macro stuff I’m watching…
Wall Street Look Ahead, Oct. 3
Wednesday OPEC meeting: Rumors are swirling that the oil cartel known as OPEC+ wants to cut oil production by a million barrels a day. That’s a massive number and would be the biggest since the start of the pandemic.
Anyone who has listened to me the past few months, I’ve been hollering that these guys will fight tooth and nail to keep oil propped up in price, much to the chagrin of U.S. President Joe Biden, who implored the Saudis (some would say begged) to produce more.
Instead, we’re getting cuts. Don’t fight the Federal Reserve and don’t fight OPEC. I like the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLE)* long here. I expect crude oil back above $90 in short order…
Jobs numbers, Oct. 7: I was spot on last week on playing the economic numbers straight as Personal Consumption Expenditures created a sell-off, as did the strong weekly payrolls. Well this week, we have monthly payrolls, which is massive. I expect the market to rally this week into that number, creating a sell-off scenario if we see the unemployment rate at or below 3.7%.
Also looking for fewer than 275,000 jobs created… or else…
Jeff Zananiri
Joy of the Trade, WealthPress
P.S. Homeowners, Beware — It Could Only Get Worse
With 2022 being such a tough year already, the LAST thing I want to do is add more rain to your parade…
Just the other day, when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell committed to hiking interest rates again, and again… Something scary happened in the housing market…
Mortgage rates jumped to new highs — even higher than before the Great Recession.
- 30-year fixed: 7.479%.
- 30-year fixed FHA: 6.917%.
- 30-year fixed VA: 7.352%.
Now, for those who own a home, you might wonder what this has to do with you…
The answer is everything… Your retirement plans… Your nest egg… Your kids’ and grandkids’ futures…
P.P.S. Senior strategist Roger Scott and I usually film The Big Picture With Jeff & Roger each Tuesday morning. This week, we’re doing something special…
Instead of the usual recording, we’re going to do this week’s episode LIVE in Roger’s VIP Trade Room, and everyone’s invited!
We’re going to talk the usual global macroeconomic things we see affecting the stock market, and also the housing crisis that is going to change life as we know it in America.
Just click this link at noon EDT on Tuesday, Oct. 4 to join us!
